A simple guide to What is happening in Sudan

Since the outbreak of violence in Sudan on April 13, 2023, the country has been plunged into a state of chaos and uncertainty. What began as a rift between Sudan’s military and civilian leaders quickly escalated into a full-blown conflict, with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) clashing in the streets of Khartoum and other major cities. The violence has been intense, with reports of widespread looting, arson, and human rights abuses, leading to a growing humanitarian crisis for Sudan’s already vulnerable population. As the conflict enters its third week, the situation remains volatile, and international observers fear that it could spiral out of control, leading to even greater levels of violence and suffering for the people of Sudan. In this article, we provide a simple guide to the key players and events shaping the crisis in Sudan and explore the possible scenarios for the future of the country.

What triggered the violence?

The current conflict in Sudan was triggered by months of tension between the country’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which joined forces to overthrow a civilian government in October 2021. This tension came to a head with the internationally-backed plan to launch a new transition with civilian parties. The final deal was supposed to be signed in early April, on the fourth anniversary of the popular uprising that led to the downfall of long-ruling Islamist autocrat Omar al-Bashir.

Under the plan, two key issues proved to be contentious between the army and the RSF. The first issue was the timetable for integrating the RSF into the regular armed forces, and the second issue was the timing for formally placing the army under civilian oversight. These disagreements eventually led to fighting between the two sides.

When violence broke out, both sides accused the other of provoking it. The army accused the RSF of illegal mobilization in the days leading up to the violence, while the RSF claimed that the army had attempted to seize full power in a plot with Bashir loyalists. This has led to a violent standoff between the two groups, with both sides refusing to back down.

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The protagonists in the outbreak of violence are army General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his deputy and the RSF leader, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti. In October 2021, al-Burhan and Dagalo orchestrated a coup, upending a fragile transition to civilian rule that had been started after the 2019 removal of longtime ruler Omar al-Bashir.

Al-Burhan, a career soldier from northern Sudan who rose through the ranks under the nearly 30-year rule of al-Bashir, took the top job as the de facto ruler of Sudan after the coup. Dagalo, from Darfur’s camel-herding Arab Rizeigat people, assumed responsibility as his number two.

As the army and civilian leaders came together to try to hammer out a deal to end the political crisis the coup brought on, integrating the RSF into the regular army became a key sticking point. According to analyst Kholood Khair, a December framework agreement for the deal “ratcheted up tensions between al-Burhan and Hemedti” when it “elevated Hemedti’s position into Burhan’s equal, rather than his deputy”. Khair, the founder of the Khartoum-based Confluence Advisory think tank, said: “That power shift is why conversations about security sector reform and integration of the RSF have ended up in armed conflict rather than the heated debate around the table.”

Who are the main players?

The current conflict in Sudan involves various players with competing interests. At the forefront of the power struggle are General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the army, and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, who is the leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and al-Burhan’s deputy on the ruling council.

As negotiations for a new transition plan with civilian parties progressed, Hemedti aligned himself with the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), a coalition of civilian parties that shared power with the military between the overthrow of former President Omar al-Bashir and the 2021 coup. This move was seen as an attempt by Hemedti to transform himself into a statesman and solidify his position at the center of power.

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On the other hand, Bashir loyalists and veterans, who have deep roots in the army, opposed the new transition plan. They regained a foothold following the coup and have been trying to maintain their influence in Sudanese politics. Some pro-army rebel factions that benefited from a 2020 peace deal also opposed the plan.

Thus, the conflict in Sudan is not just a power struggle between the army and the RSF but also involves the interests of various political groups and factions. Understanding the backgrounds and interests of these players is crucial in comprehending the complexities of the conflict.

What is the RSF?

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is a controversial paramilitary group in Sudan that has gained notoriety for its brutal tactics in suppressing dissent. Formed in 2013, the RSF emerged from the Janjaweed militias, which were responsible for war crimes during the Darfur conflict in the 2000s. The group was initially used by the government to crush the rebellion in the region. In 2017, a law was passed that legitimized the RSF as an independent security force. The RSF is led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemeti, who has become a powerful figure in Sudanese politics and business. Despite being a longtime ally of former President Omar al-Bashir, Dagalo played a key role in overthrowing him during the 2019 uprising. However, the RSF’s brutal tactics and alleged war crimes have led to international condemnation and raised questions about its future role in Sudan.

What is SAF?

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are the military forces of the Republic of Sudan. They were established in 1956 after Sudan gained independence from Britain and Egypt. The SAF consists of four branches: the Land Forces, the Navy, the Air Force, and the Popular Defence Force. The SAF has been involved in several conflicts in Sudan and abroad, such as the civil wars in South Sudan and Darfur, the Yemeni Civil War, and the Ethiopian Civil War. The SAF has faced criticism for human rights violations, corruption, and coup attempts. The SAF is currently led by Lieutenant General Abdul Fattah al-Burhan, who is also the head of the Transitional Sovereignty Council that took power after the 2019 and 2021 coups.

What’s at stake?

The ongoing conflict in Sudan holds significant stakes for both the country and the region as a whole. After decades of autocracy, internal conflict, and economic isolation under former ruler Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s population of 46 million had hoped for a brighter future following a popular uprising in 2019.

However, the current violence, which is centered on one of Africa’s largest urban areas, threatens to shatter these hopes and destabilize a volatile region that borders the Sahel, the Red Sea, and the Horn of Africa. The consequences of this instability could extend beyond Sudan’s borders and affect neighboring countries.

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Moreover, the conflict in Sudan has the potential to play into a broader competition for influence in the region between global superpowers like Russia and the United States, as well as regional powers who have aligned themselves with different actors in Sudan. The stakes are high, and the outcome of this conflict will have far-reaching consequences.

What’s the role of international actors?

The role of international actors in Sudan’s political crisis has been significant. Western powers, such as the United States, supported the transition towards democratic elections after the overthrow of Bashir but suspended financial support after the coup. They then backed the plan for the new transition and a civilian government. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have also been involved in shaping events in Sudan, viewing the transition away from Bashir’s rule as a means to reduce Islamist influence and enhance stability in the region. These Gulf states have been pursuing investments in sectors such as agriculture, where Sudan has great potential, and ports on Sudan’s Red Sea coast.

Russia has expressed interest in building a naval base on the Red Sea, and several UAE companies have been signing up to invest. Burhan and Hemedti, who have developed close ties to Saudi Arabia after sending troops to participate in the Saudi-led operation in Yemen, have also established relationships with other foreign powers, including the UAE and Russia. Meanwhile, Egypt, led by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who overthrew his Islamist predecessor, has deep ties to Burhan and the army. Egypt recently promoted a parallel track of political negotiations through parties with stronger links to the army and Bashir’s former government.

Sudan’s strategic location and agricultural wealth have attracted regional power plays, making a successful transition more complicated. Sudan borders the Red Sea, the Sahel region, and the Horn of Africa. Several of Sudan’s neighbors, including Ethiopia, Chad, and South Sudan, have also been affected by political upheavals and conflict. Sudan’s relationship with Ethiopia has been strained over disputed farmland along their border, the conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which drove tens of thousands of refugees into Sudan, and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Regional heavyweights Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which forged close ties to the RSF when it sent thousands of fighters to support the war in Yemen, have called for both sides to stand down. The United States, the United Kingdom, and the Quad, which also includes the United Nations and African Union, have sponsored mediation in Sudan. Western powers fear that Russia could establish a military base on the Red Sea, which Sudanese leaders have expressed openness to since the al-Bashir era. Egypt, which backs Sudan’s military, has pursued an alternative track with groups that supported the 2021 coup.

What are the scenarios?

Despite calls for humanitarian ceasefires and a return to dialogue by international actors, there are few signs of compromise from the warring factions, despite a temporary halt in fighting that allowed foreign nations to evacuate some of their citizens. As a result, the growing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which is already reliant on aid to feed its people, could lead to an influx of refugees. Already, up to 20,000 people have fled to Chad, 10,000 to South Sudan, and more are heading north to Egypt.

The army has demanded the dissolution of the RSF, branding them a rebel force, while Hemedti has called Burhan a criminal and blamed him for the country’s destruction. With an estimated 300,000 troops and superior resources including air power, the Sudanese army has an advantage over the RSF, which has an estimated 100,000 troops deployed across major cities. However, the protracted conflict comes on top of a long-running economic crisis and existing, large-scale humanitarian needs.

The RSF has significant support and tribal ties in the western region of Darfur, where it emerged from militias that fought alongside government forces to crush rebels in a brutal war that escalated after 2003. This, combined with the existing crisis, could lead to various scenarios, including further escalation of the conflict, regional destabilization, and a potential spillover effect into neighboring countries.

What is the Future?

The future of Sudan remains uncertain as the conflict between the military and the RSF continues. The UN has warned of a potential collapse of the country if the conflict persists, highlighting the risk of widespread displacement and the exacerbation of the humanitarian crisis. Sudan’s military council has rejected calls for mediation by regional powers and international organizations, insisting that it can resolve the crisis internally. However, the situation on the ground remains volatile, with reports of ongoing fighting and casualties.

At the heart of the conflict is an existential power struggle between the military and the RSF. Both sides see the conflict as a “very zero-sum” game, according to Alan Boswell, Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group. Neither side is willing to back down, and both continue to make bellicose statements against each other. As a result, it is unlikely that they will come to the negotiating table without one or both of them suffering heavy losses.

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This zero-sum mentality is likely to lead to further escalation of the conflict and could have disastrous consequences for the country. The longer the fighting continues, the higher the civilian toll will climb and the harder it will be for either side to rule over the wreckage. Moreover, the conflict threatens to derail the ongoing transition to civilian rule and could lead to further delays in the transition process.

Despite these challenges, there are some indications of hope for Sudan’s future. Civil society groups and political parties have been actively engaging in peaceful protests and advocating for a return to civilian rule. International actors, including the African Union and the United Nations, have also been involved in efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict. In addition, there are reports of local peace initiatives and negotiations between different groups within Sudan.

Ultimately, the future of Sudan will depend on the ability of its leaders to find a peaceful and sustainable solution to the current crisis. This will require a commitment to dialogue, compromise, and reconciliation, as well as a willingness to put the interests of the country and its people first. If these conditions can be met, there is a chance for Sudan to emerge from this crisis stronger and more united than before.