Switch language / ভাষা পরিবর্তন করুন
PoliticsEnglish Edition

The Geopolitical Calculus Behind the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Rakibul IslamRakibul Islam
•March 1, 2022•10 min read
The Geopolitical Calculus Behind the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

On Thursday, February 24, the Russian Federation initiated a full-scale military offensive. Executed via a multi-pronged strategy—encompassing incursions from Belarus in the north, Crimea and the Black Sea in the south, and the newly recognized separatist entities of Donetsk and Luhansk in the east—this synchronized land, air, and maritime assault has brought the Ukrainian state to the precipice of systemic collapse.

On Thursday, February 24, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as announced by the Kremlin. The offensive was coordinated across multiple fronts: from Belarus in the north, Crimea and the Black Sea in the south, and the newly recognized territories of Donetsk and Luhansk in the east. By deploying land, air, and naval forces in a synchronized, multi-pronged assault, Moscow has brought Ukraine to the precipice of catastrophe. The Kremlin’s primary objective was the neutralization of Ukraine's military infrastructure, with the initial strikes targeting airfields, defense headquarters, and defense systems with clinical precision. On the first day of combat, the Ukrainian defense struggled to gain any significant foothold. Since then, Russia has seized several cities, including the Chernobyl nuclear facility. Casualty figures are mounting, with at least 198 Ukrainian civilians reported dead and thousands more among the general population killed in the crossfire. As civilians flee in droves toward neighboring countries, the international community is left to grapple with a haunting question: What prompted Russia to invade Ukraine, and why was Vladimir Putin willing to embrace such an existential risk?

Why did Russia invade Ukraine?

It is essential to understand that this was not an impulsive act of war. Rather, the "preparations for war" have been gestating for years, orchestrated with calculated patience. The origins of the current Russo-Ukrainian crisis are rooted in the dissolution of the Soviet Union. In the early 1990s, Ukraine inherited the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal. Under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, the United States and Russia facilitated an agreement wherein Ukraine surrendered its nuclear stockpiles in exchange for security guarantees that Russia would never violate its sovereignty. Ukraine honored this commitment, relinquishing hundreds of nuclear warheads.
Why did Russia invade Ukraine?
The geopolitical fracture deepened in 2013, when the pro-Russian Ukrainian government abruptly suspended an economic association agreement with the European Union. This sparked widespread protests in Kyiv, which devolved into violent clashes as the state attempted to suppress the dissent. The protests eventually culminated in a political coup, and in February 2014, President Viktor Yanukovych fled to Russia. A pro-Western government subsequently ascended to power.

Is the USA a Leading Terrorist State?

Related Analysis
The Middle East Crisis and the Geopolitics of the Strait of Hormuz: The Dawn of a New Cold War?

Beyond the conventional narratives propagated by Western media, a closer inspection of the map reveals a starker reality: the perpetual instability in the Middle East serves as a backdrop to a ruthless shadow conflict over the Strait of Hormuz—the critical maritime chokepoint through which twenty percent of the world’s petroleum supply flows.

রাকিবুল ইসলাম • Politics
Read Article →
Shortly thereafter, in March 2014, Russian forces occupied and annexed Crimea. Moscow subsequently began fueling a separatist insurgency in the eastern Donbas region, providing support to groups in Donetsk and Luhansk. These separatists engaged in a sustained conflict with the Ukrainian state—effectively acting as proxies in a war waged by Russia. The regional crisis escalated into an international catastrophe in July 2014, when a Malaysia Airlines flight was shot down by a missile, resulting in the deaths of all 298 people on board. Subsequent investigations confirmed the missile system used was supplied by Russia. Diplomatic efforts led to the first Minsk Agreement in September 2014, involving Russia, the OSCE, Ukraine, and the separatists. When that failed, the Minsk II agreement was signed in 2015, outlining thirteen points including prisoner exchanges, humanitarian aid, and the withdrawal of heavy weaponry. The agreements remained largely toothless, however, as both Moscow and Kyiv offered conflicting interpretations, rendering the pacts a diplomatic enigma. By April 2016, NATO had deployed four battalions to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland to deter potential Russian aggression. The United States followed suit in 2017, sending two tank brigades to Poland.

What do we owe Afghanistan?

Contributors Wanted • Write for MaroonPaper

Publish Your Research & Critical Analysis on MaroonPaper

Contribute in-depth essays on law, political philosophy, economics, and geopolitics to an intellectual readership.

Submit Writing →
During the Trump administration, the U.S. significantly increased its security assistance, making Ukraine the fourth-largest recipient of American military aid. In 2018, Ukraine sanctioned 21 Russian individuals and nine companies involved in the conflict. That October, Ukraine participated in large-scale military exercises with the U.S. and seven other NATO nations—a tightening of ties that proved deeply provocative to the Kremlin. By December 2021, Russia had amassed 115,000 troops along the Belarus-Ukraine border, conducting joint exercises. Without formal declarations, Russia began establishing field hospitals, missile batteries, and logistics centers along the perimeter. Despite constant warnings from Washington and Brussels that an invasion was imminent, the Kremlin maintained a facade of denial while the situation deteriorated daily. On February 21, 2022, Russia formally recognized Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states. Though these territories had declared independence in 2014, Putin’s move in 2022 fundamentally shifted the calculus of the conflict. By citing "peacekeeping" as a pretext, he deployed troops into the region, and three days later, declared an all-out war. In essence, recognizing the independence of these regions was a maneuver to legitimize the illegal presence of Russian troops within Ukraine. By declaring parts of sovereign Ukraine independent and launching a military campaign therein, Russia has flagrantly violated international law, the Russo-Ukrainian Friendship Treaty, the Budapest Memorandum, and the Minsk agreements.

Why did Russia violate these laws and agreements to recognize the Donbas and launch a full-scale invasion?

> ### Putin's invasion is intended to prevent Ukraine’s accession to NATO Ukraine is historically viewed by the Kremlin as an integral part of the Russian sphere. Bound by language, religion, and shared history, the two nations remain deeply intertwined. Moscow still views the collapse of the Soviet Union through the lens of a traumatic geopolitical scar. During the Cold War, the U.S. and Europe effectively fragmented the Soviet Union. Ukraine, arguably the most resource-rich and strategically significant successor, sits directly on Russia's western flank, bordering the Black Sea. Geopolitically, this territory is vital; it acts as a buffer zone that, if drawn into the NATO orbit, would place Western military installations directly on Russia’s doorstep. For Putin, the prospect of Ukraine becoming an American "playground" is an intolerable threat.

Let’s call Israel’s violence what it is: terrorism, not clashes

Latest Recommendation
The Palestinian Question and the Abraham Accords: Critiques, Dividends, and Geopolitical Realities

The volatility currently defining Middle Eastern statecraft is anchored by the convergence of the intractable Palestinian crisis and the Abraham Accords—a transformative diplomatic framework that continues to reshape the regional architecture.

রাকিবুল ইসলাম • Opinions
Read Article →

Putin will not allow the European energy market to slip from Russian control

Russia provides one-quarter of Europe’s total gas demand, and approximately 80% of those exports transit through Ukraine. Despite the construction of the $10 billion Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Ukraine’s existing infrastructure remains the primary artery for energy flow. If Ukraine integrates into the Western security architecture, Russia risks losing its leverage over European energy policy, potentially ceding the market to American suppliers—a scenario that would force France and Germany to pay significantly higher costs for energy.

Putin wants control over the Ukrainian government

Consolidating control over the Ukrainian government is a strategic imperative for Moscow. By installing a pro-Russian representative or maintaining a proxy government—similar to the structure of the Lukashenko regime in Belarus—Russia seeks to dictate Ukraine’s military and political trajectory. The recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk is not merely a regional dispute; it is a means to justify a permanent military foothold within Ukraine, providing a legal pretext for intervention that the Kremlin lacked when acting through anonymous proxies.

The Declaration of War

Russia repeatedly demanded that NATO preclude Ukraine’s membership. Western powers consistently rejected these demands, refusing to provide the guarantees Putin sought. Instead, they increased military aid to Kyiv, bolstering its defenses and reinforcing the borders of Baltic states and Poland.

Dictatorship and Human Rights: The Ongoing Struggle for Freedom

For Putin, the refusal of the West to halt Ukraine’s NATO ambitions was an unacceptable provocation. Driven by a desire to restore the lost grandeur of the Soviet era—evidenced by the display of Soviet flags on Russian military vehicles—he became emboldened to act. In his declaration of war, he characterized the invasion as a mission to "protect" those who had allegedly suffered eight years of genocide under the Kyiv government, issuing a chilling warning: any attempt to interfere would result in consequences never seen in history.

The Costs of War

Russian forces have already reached the outskirts of Kyiv, just 20 kilometers from the capital. Hundreds of thousands have fled as refugees. Ukraine claims to have destroyed over 150 tanks, 700 armored vehicles, and 26 helicopters. Conversely, Moscow claims to have struck 1,000 Ukrainian military facilities, including 27 command posts and numerous missile defense systems. The human toll, across both sides, has reached several thousand dead.

Military vs. Economic Warfare

To date, NATO has resisted direct military intervention, limiting its response to economic sanctions applied from the safety of Ukraine’s western borders. Due to German reluctance, the full exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT banking system has been delayed, muting the impact of the initial financial strike.

Dictatorship and Human Rights: The Ongoing Struggle for Freedom

Despite the caution, NATO countries are providing substantial military aid: * The U.S. has pledged $350 million in anti-tank Javelins and anti-aircraft systems. * Germany has authorized the transfer of 1,000 anti-tank grenade launchers and 500 Stinger missiles. * The Netherlands is providing 50 Panzerfaust-3 anti-tank weapons and 400 rockets. * Azerbaijan has committed to providing free fuel for humanitarian efforts. In response, Russia has signaled it will freeze Western assets within its borders.

Could this war have been avoided?

It is widely understood that Ukraine’s path to NATO membership was, at best, a long-term prospect. Yet, the West refused to offer the neutral status guarantee that might have deterred Putin. Western powers seem to have viewed the situation through a different strategic lens. First, the conflict offers a vacuum for arms sales, turning Ukraine into a primary market for Western defense contractors. Second, by goading Russia, the West creates a scenario where any spillover into a NATO country would trigger a collective response, providing the legitimacy for a unified intervention to dismantle the Russian military threat. Third, should the humanitarian crisis reach a breaking point, the West could move to integrate Ukraine into its orbit under the pretext of an emergency response. However, the prospect of NATO being fully drawn into this conflict remains low. While Ukraine has urgently applied for EU membership, the question of whether Europe is willing to shoulder the risks remains open. Ultimately, the future of this conflict—and whether it descends into the most profound human catastrophe of the 21st century—hinges on Moscow’s next move.

Share this intellectual discourse

Help expand constructive dialogues on global affairs, law, and politics.

Rakibul Islam

Rakibul Islam

Author & Contributor, MaroonPaper

Contributing insightful research and analytical essays on law, politics, history, and international affairs for MaroonPaper.

Stay Connected with MaroonPaper

Subscribe to receive selected intellectual essays, critical commentaries, and translations directly in your inbox.

No spam, ever. Unsubscribe at any time.