Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: Peace in the South Caucasus region

Nagorno-Karabakh, which had been poisoned in Azerbaijan for more than three decades,  was finally treated on November 10. On this day, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to stop the war and make a peace agreement, mediated by Russia, accepting the reality. This agreement ended the occupation of Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis.

Since 1988, the war has been going on for a while by attacking and counter-attacking and putting the responsibility of one person on the other. In this attack and counter-attack of the two countries, civilians have also been greatly affected, many have been killed. At one time, the attack started with the aim of civilians. Ordinary public life is greatly affected. Thousands of people were killed, and their homes were abandoned.

Finally, on November 10, the two countries signed a Russian-brokered deal to end the war, which Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan commented was “incredibly painful for me and my people personally” and the President of Azerbaijan called the deal a “historic victory”.

Naturally, with the comments of the two leaders of the two countries, the citizens of both countries have come out on the streets, some in anger and some in joy. Armenians stormed the parliament in anger, alleging that a computer, some perfumes, watches, and some furniture were stolen during the protests. Protesters vandalized parliament demanding the prime minister’s resignation. ^{Al Jazeera}

But why is this painful or historic victory over Nagorno-Karabakh going on for so many decades? What’s going on with this conflict? Was this conflict necessary?  Where did all this come from?  Why are Russia and Turkey interested here?  Why are these countries making their noses about Nagorno-Karabakh?

The answer to all this is hidden or grown in the densely forested mountains of Nagorno Karabakh.

What’s the conflict about?

The subject of the conflict is Nagorno-Karabakh. Located in the southwest of Azerbaijan, this mountainous region is a very important region of Azerbaijan, which is an autonomous region dominated by Armenian Christians. The 4,400-square-kilometer area is culturally and politically important for Azerbaijan, the capital of this autonomous region, Stepanakert. The region is located inside Azerbaijan but is controlled by the Republic of Artsakh,  backed by Armenia. But no other country in the world has recognized this republic except Armenia.

The birth of the crisis

Caucasus Two adjacent nations that were derived from the former Soviet Union are Armenia and Azerbaijan. These two nations did not, however, have an easy birth.

After the fall of Russia in World War I, the Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan declared independence on May 28, 1918. But just two years later, in 1920, Azerbaijan again fell under Russian control. Similarly, Armenia also fell under Russian control within two years of the declaration of independence.  These two countries were incorporated into the Inter-Caucasian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1922. In the early 1920s, the “Autonomous Nagorno-Karabakh Region” or Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO)  was created within the Azerbaijani Socialist Republic. Later, at different times, when Joseph Stalin was the head of the Soviet Caucasian Committee, he ceded or annexed the region to Azerbaijan. However, at the time of the creation of this region, various documents show that the area will remain ‘with Azerbaijan’, meaning that the area will be considered to be of Azerbaijan. ^{Al Jazeera}

Formation of independent socialist republics

In 1936, the Inter-Caucasian Soviet Socialist Republic was dissolved into three separate republics, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. Since the republic was formed with separate territories and specific boundaries, after 1936 Nagorno-Karabakh became an integral part of Azerbaijan, but the status of autonomy was retained.

The conflict started here, but it wasn’t visible yet. Because the Nagorno-Karabakh region is an integral part of Azerbaijan. Along with Armenian Christians, many Muslims and followers of other religions lived there. Until then, the people of the region maintained contact with Christian-majority Armenia, but Armenia did not turn a direct nose.  The crisis became severe when, three years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, in 1988, the Nagorno-Karabakh Christian population, backed by Armenia, held a referendum to move to the Republic of Armenia. Both Russia and Azerbaijan strongly protested against this. Organizing this referendum or referendum was out of the law because according to the law of the time in Russia, Nagorno-Karbach could vote only in two cases:

• to remain under Russia or
• To be under the control of Azerbaijan.

Being located inside Azerbaijan is naturally impossible or against the law to go under the control of Armenia. As an inalienable part of Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh does not have the right to declare independence, nor does Armenia have the right to include it in its authority.

Independence of Azerbaijan and Armenia

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia, and Azerbaijan gained independence, and the boundaries of the period were internationally recognized when the Soviet Union was a republic. After that, Nagorno-Karabakh was widely recognized as an integral part of Azerbaijan.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia entered Azerbaijan in 1991 and started a war.  In 1992, a number of massacres took place in the war, including the Maliyebali, Gustualar, Garadafli, Agadaban, and Khojali massacres. About 30,000 people were killed and about a million Azerbaijanis were evicted from Nagorno-Karabakh and the adjoining districts of Armenia. About 2500,000 people from Azerbaijan left for Armenia. In 1993, four resolutions (822, 853, 874, and 884) were issued by the United Nations Security Council to withdraw Armenian troops from Azerbaijan. Through these resolutions, Armenia was called for an immediate, unconditional, and final withdrawal of troops. Armenia didn’t agree. Armenia occupies at least 20% of its surrounding seven districts, including Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan. In 1994, the two sides agreed to a ceasefire.

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But neither side is persona grata of the ceasefire. Over the past three decades, there have been occasional shootouts between the two countries. Many were injured and killed. In 2016, there have been many casualties on both sides on the Azerbaijan-Armenia border. When the shelling began in July this year, Russia supplied Arms to Armenia, which naturally hindered peace in the region. About 17 soldiers from both sides were killed in this battle.

Parties, neighbors’ struggles, and efforts to resolve the crisis

The Minsk Group was created in 1992 for a peaceful resolution of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Its member states are The United States, France, and Russia. But this group has never even come close to a solution, but at different times the situation has worsened due to biased behavior.

Although Azerbaijan and Armenia are apparently two sides, the list of local instigators behind them is long. The Caucasian region is important for any alliance in any aspect. Whether it’s for NATO or the Asian Alliance. Turkey, Russia, Iran, Israel, Georgia, Italy, and France have been negotiating around these two countries since the beginning. But who’s on whose side?  Before saying this, we need to know about the personal beliefs of these countries. Turkey is a Sunni Muslim-dominated country, Iran is a Shia Muslim-dominated country, Russia is a Christian-dominated country, Israel is Jewish, Georgia is the Christian, Italy is a Christian-dominated country, and France is a Christian-dominated country.

It is questionable whether any of these countries have taken sides on the basis of religion. However, along with the questions of the religion-based alliance, regional geopolitics is the main criterion for the alliance. This can be understood by specifying the two sides. Historically, Armenia is a predominantly Christian country and Azerbaijan is a predominantly Muslim country of Shia. The countries that stand for these two countries…

The Armenian Alliance

Russia, France, and Iran have provided geopolitical support to Armenia with weapons. Because Azerbaijan was once under the control of Persia and Iran in the 19th century. Armenia’s loss of authority over Azerbaijan has angered Iran. Regional geopolitics is the reason why Iran is not supporting Azerbaijan and supporting Armenia despite being a Shia Muslim-majority country. France and Italy have supported it as cousins, and after the Crusades in Europe, Armenia has tried to reach out to Christian-majority countries for strategic reasons. As a result, its relations with Italy and France have improved, although Armenians have built ‘Armenian Orthodox’ in a completely different way from the rest of the countries.

The Azerbaijani Alliance

On the other hand, Azerbaijan’s main ally is Turkey. Azerbaijan’s political, social, cultural, and religious relations with Turkey are very close. Relations with Israel are largely commercial. Azerbaijan imports weapons from Israel and Israel imports oil from Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan meets a large portion of Israel’s oil needs. Most of Azerbaijan’s air defense system is bought from Israel and Turkey. Azerbaijan has destroyed Armenia with drones purchased from these two countries. Azerbaijan’s oil enters the European market through a huge pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey via Georgia. Armenia’s belligerent policies have moved Georgia away from Armenia.

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Russia is a universal partner in these two parties. Russia is a supporter and instigator of both sides. It supplies weapons to both sides.

The main reason for this is the regional politics and Armenia, and Azerbaijan is like the younger brother of Russia, which was once born in the then Soviet Union. That’s why no matter what happens between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia’s presence there is inevitable. However, in recent times, in 2016, Russia’s behavior in Armenia has been visible. Subsequently, Azerbaijan moved forward to improve relations with Russia.

In each of the few conflicts that took place in 2020, Russia was involved in different ways, sometimes a facilitator and sometimes a solution. In the end, France was an ally of Armenia, and America was busy with corona and sometimes presidential elections. On this occasion, Russia has put the entire credit of bringing peace to the region in its pocket.

The latest conflict

Nagorno-Karabakh is sometimes attacked. Both sides denied who carried out the first attack. Although there have been sporadic wars at different times, the war that started on September 27 is so terrible that such a situation has never happened in the last 25 years. Although Armenia has the entire credit for the unilateral war in the 1991 war, Armenia has never been able to lead Azerbaijan since then. Both teams fought equally. This time it’s even more terrible. Armenia has been severely defeated by Azerbaijan’s defensive attack in this war. Azerbaijan has responded equally to Armenia in the air and on land. Armenia, however, did not give up.

Azerbaijan fought the main war with drones purchased from Israel and Turkey. Because the Armenians were ahead in the geographical features of Nagorno-Karabakh. But Azerbaijan’s drones have changed the whole face of the war. The suicide attack by the Upuryapuri drone caused extensive damage to Armenia’s air security system, as well as tanks, heavy weapons, armored fleets, and manpower. In retaliation, several Azerbaijani tank fleets were destroyed.

Conquest of Shusha, the second largest city in Nagorno-Karabakh

Azerbaijan has been able to retake Nagorno-Karabakh and many of its surrounding areas, which were occupied by Armenia in the 6th week of the war. Azerbaijan gradually reclaimed much of the territory towards Stepanakert, Nagorno-Karabakh’s largest city. Shushi, or ‘Shusha’, the region’s second-largest city, was restored on November 8. The fall of the city has forced Armenia to retreat severely. Because this city is very important to both countries culturally and politically. And Stepanakert, the heart of Nagorno-Karabakh, is only just 15 kilometers away. By the fall of this city, Armenia is longer in a position to stand.

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Azerbaijan has been able to regain about 20 percent of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, including the territory occupied by Azerbaijan in 1990-1994. Meanwhile, the fall of the important city of Shushi hastened Azerbaijan’s victory.

More than 80 Azerbaijanis have been killed in a missile attack by Armenia since September 27. Nagorno-Karabakh authorities say about 1,200 of their soldiers have been killed in the fighting. Many civilians were also injured and killed. Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin said about 5,000 people had been killed in the war.

At the end of the defeat, Armenia unconditionally said to have made a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. Without this agreement, Armenia had no choice. Armenia would have lost everything if it did not make a deal on the way it was defeating Armenia throughout the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Through this agreement, Armenia originally tried to save the cow a bit, but the victory was mainly for Azerbaijan.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Treaty

For Armenia, there were two ways out of the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. First, through negotiations, or secondly, through military action. The way Armenia has been in turmoil for the last six weeks, it was not possible to implement the military means in any way.  Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Poshnyan said he was forced to make a deal under pressure from his military. ^{Al Jazeera} wrote on Facebook that he decided to go to the agreement considering the situation of his army in Karabakh. He had no choice but to do that.

The Azerbaijan-Armenia dispute has not been resolved since the Minsk Group was established in 1992, and no progress has been achieved in that regard. The initiatives by America, France, and Russia did not result in any advancements. Armenia has instead made every effort to make its occupation lawful day by day. In essence, the Minsk group has made the issue more challenging.

In the last war that began on September 27, both sides have taken various steps to stop the war, discussing and deciding. Again, in the next day, both were involved in an attack-counter-attack without going to go. However, on November 10, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed an agreement brokered by Russia. This is the first time since 1994 that such a terrible war ended under this agreement. It is easy to imagine how much danger a belligerent country like Armenia has been forced into this agreement. According to the five-year agreement, the territories that Azerbaijan has reclaimed will remain with Azerbaijan. All military activities in Nagorno-Karabakh will cease. Armenia will withdraw its army from Nagorno-Karabakh and its surrounding areas in Azerbaijan. Russia’s 1,960 troops will serve as peacekeepers across Nagorno-Karabakh. Russian peacekeepers will be in charge of the corridors of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Another new corridor will be opened.

The agreement on which both parties have agreed

• The territories that Azerbaijan has reclaimed from September 27 until the agreement will remain under Azerbaijan’s control.
• All military activities will stop with the agreement. Armenia will withdraw troops from Nagorno-Karabakh and its adjoining areas within a few weeks. This process has to be completed by December 1 from the date of the agreement.
• Russia’s 1,960 soldiers will be deployed as peacekeepers to the Nagorno-Karabakh Frontline and the Lichen Corridor.
• A new corridor will be opened from Nakhsivan to Azerbaijan.
• Prisoners of war between the two countries will be exchanged.
• The displaced residents will return to their respective areas and settle down.

The President of Azerbaijan has announced that Turkey will monitor the peace deal and participate in the activities. However, Russia has denied this.

Because of the South Caucasian region’s strategic significance, Russia has become a mediator. It seemed obvious that Russian forces would be sent to the area. Russia will station troops in the Nagorno-Karabakh region as part of the subsequent five-year peace agreement. This deal has some very significant implications. This deal might be seen as a very welcome success for Azerbaijan. As a result, Azerbaijan’s control over the most delicate area of Nagorno-Karabakh was established. As a result of the new corridor’s direct connectivity with Nakhshiven, another autonomous province of Azerbaijan that has been geographically cut off for a long time, the entire history of the area will alter.

The war-torn region for years is finally getting an atmosphere of peace. In these five years, the future of Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as the South Caucasian region, will depend on how advanced and strategic the policies and regional politics of the two countries will be. After these five years, only time will tell whether these two countries will correct or the situation will be more complicated like in Afghanistan. However, the lessons that Russia has learned in Afghanistan must not be foolish enough to repeat them in front of its own house. Nara goes to Beltala only once. However, it remains to be seen whether Russia is that bad or not.

September Escalation

The Armenia-Azerbaijan border crisis of 2021–2022 significantly escalated on September 12, 2022, when a series of clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani troops broke out along the border. By September 14, approximately 300 people had died and scores had been injured on both sides. According to a report from Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, at least 204 Armenian personnel were killed or went missing. 80 deaths were reported among Azerbaijan’s military personnel, bringing the overall number of casualties to at least 284.

The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry said that Armenian positions close to the cities of Vardenis, Goris, Sotk, and Jermuk had been targeted with artillery and heavy weapons and that it had also taken some parts of its land. This claim was later corroborated by NASA satellite imagery. Azerbaijan claimed that a measure was taken to stop the Armenian military from mining supply roads close to border areas. As a result, Azerbaijan captured numerous strategic heights in the border area.

On September 13, Russia claimed to have mediated a cease-fire, but both sides concurred that it was breached shortly after taking effect. A fresh ceasefire was mediated on September 14 by Armenia and Azerbaijan. Conflict broke out quickly after Russia’s force projection in the Caucasus was compromised by significant defeats in the Kharkiv counteroffensive during the invasion of Ukraine. A fresh ceasefire was mediated on September 14 by Armenia and Azerbaijan.